Thank you John for stepping in at short notice to speak to us and present a very well researched Climate Change Report on 8 August. The following review was adapted from John's presentation slides, if readers wish to view John's original Climate Change Report slides in PDF format, click here.
PARIS AGREEMENT 2016:
AIM to hold the global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees C and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.50 degrees C above pre –industrial levels
• Target 1: 50% reduction in GHG(Greenhouse Gas)emissions by 2030
• Target 2 Net zero GHG emissions by 2050
• 196 countries agree: all develop NCDs(Nationally Determined Contributions)
AFTER EIGHT YEARS ….
• 2023 :Global average surface temperature 1.44 degrees C above pre industrial levels
• Average sea surface temperature between 60N and 60S reached 20.96degrees C in August 2023, highest since records began
• Venezuela the first country to lose all its glaciers-the sixth and last, Humbolt Glacier, in May this year.
• We’re losing Arctic sea ice at a rate of almost 13% per decade, and over the past 30 years the oldest and thickest ice in the artic has declined by a stunning 95%.
SO WHERE ARE WE GOING?
• There is an 80% chance that the annual average global temperature will exceed 1.5% at least
once in the next five years ,and there is a 47% chance that the entire 2024-2028 period will
be above the 1.5% Paris target
• Arctic warming is expected to be more than three times as large as the global average.
• We are dangerously close to the tipping points which mean global warming becomes
uncontrollable.
DOES IT MATTER?
• 3 Degrees C “a planet hotter than it has ever been in human history” (Mark Lynas)
• Total collapse of West Antarctic ice sheet and much of Greenland ice sheet: 2 to 4 metres
sea rise, flooding major cities.
• 1/3 of global land area will be uninhabitable, collapse of current agriculture and significant
loss of species
HOW ABOUT NEW ZEALAND
• New Zealand Governments current and past are failing in the global warming fight and ranks
34th in the current climate change performance index
WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE?
• Mitigation is the key to making adaption possible, without mitigation we will have a planet
to which we cannot adapt
• Need to lower the emissions reducing coal, oil and gas production and move to renewable
energy sources
ALL IS NOT LOST
• New NDCs are due in 2025.An opportunity. This will be a chance to include air travel, sea
travel and military activity
• We are developing new technologies for Methane mitigation, carbon capture
• Vehicle transport becoming increasingly electrified
• Growth in renewable sources for energy: no more coal, oil and gas
IT’S A RACE AGAINST TIME
These are all very sobering facts however John did give us some action points we should all
consider very seriously:
• There is an 80% chance that the annual average global temperature will exceed 1.5% at least
once in the next five years ,and there is a 47% chance that the entire 2024-2028 period will
be above the 1.5% Paris target
• Arctic warming is expected to be more than three times as large as the global average.
• We are dangerously close to the tipping points which mean global warming becomes
uncontrollable.
DOES IT MATTER?
• 3 Degrees C “a planet hotter than it has ever been in human history” (Mark Lynas)
• Total collapse of West Antarctic ice sheet and much of Greenland ice sheet: 2 to 4 metres
sea rise, flooding major cities.
• 1/3 of global land area will be uninhabitable, collapse of current agriculture and significant
loss of species
HOW ABOUT NEW ZEALAND
• New Zealand Governments current and past are failing in the global warming fight and ranks
34th in the current climate change performance index
WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE?
• Mitigation is the key to making adaption possible, without mitigation we will have a planet
to which we cannot adapt
• Need to lower the emissions reducing coal, oil and gas production and move to renewable
energy sources
ALL IS NOT LOST
• New NDCs are due in 2025.An opportunity. This will be a chance to include air travel, sea
travel and military activity
• We are developing new technologies for Methane mitigation, carbon capture
• Vehicle transport becoming increasingly electrified
• Growth in renewable sources for energy: no more coal, oil and gas
IT’S A RACE AGAINST TIME
These are all very sobering facts however John did give us some action points we should all
consider very seriously:
