The address at our meeting last week was presented by Professor Robert Patman, Professor of International Relations at Otago University.The talk was illuminating and very informative and was followed by questions from the floor.
I have broken down Professor Patmans address:
Why did Russia attack Ukraine?
Putin was wanting to demonstrate to the Russian people how powerful both he and the Russian military were and to avoid an investigation into corruption in Russia which was part of a foreign trade deal.
Putin is in denial that Ukraine is a separate sovereign state. He believes that he is not invading Ukraine, simply liberating former Russian citizens.
Putin believed that the expansion of NATO was posing a threat to Russian security and wanted Ukraine to form a ‘buffer’.
Putin wanted his regime to survive. Against the advice of his advisers he invaded Ukraine.
Putin was wanting to demonstrate to the Russian people how powerful both he and the Russian military were and to avoid an investigation into corruption in Russia which was part of a foreign trade deal.
Putin is in denial that Ukraine is a separate sovereign state. He believes that he is not invading Ukraine, simply liberating former Russian citizens.
Putin believed that the expansion of NATO was posing a threat to Russian security and wanted Ukraine to form a ‘buffer’.
Putin wanted his regime to survive. Against the advice of his advisers he invaded Ukraine.
Why has the war lingered on?
Putin is the architect of a catastrophic mistake, underestimating the resolve of the Ukrainian people.
Putin incorrectly predicted how the Western countries would react to his invasion and their level of support for Ukraine.
Putin controls the State Media. The general Russian population is unaware of the true situation.
Putin is the architect of a catastrophic mistake, underestimating the resolve of the Ukrainian people.
Putin incorrectly predicted how the Western countries would react to his invasion and their level of support for Ukraine.
Putin controls the State Media. The general Russian population is unaware of the true situation.
Why will Russian use of nuclear weapons not occur?
The Chinese have warned Russia that their support for Putin and Russia will be withdrawn if nuclear weapons are deployed.
The Russian military will not support Putin in the use of nuclear weapons.
Nuclear fallout so close to Russian soil would be catastrophic to Putins regime.
The Chinese have warned Russia that their support for Putin and Russia will be withdrawn if nuclear weapons are deployed.
The Russian military will not support Putin in the use of nuclear weapons.
Nuclear fallout so close to Russian soil would be catastrophic to Putins regime.
How will the war end?
Vladimir Putin and his regime would need to be removed for the war to be ended
Russian public awareness and a total collapse of the Russian economy are two very likely scenarios for this to happen.
Vladimir Putin and his regime would need to be removed for the war to be ended
Russian public awareness and a total collapse of the Russian economy are two very likely scenarios for this to happen.
This is clearly an ongoing, evolving situation and it would be excellent to have Professor Patman back for an update at some future time.
