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Drop, Cover, Hold!  AF8
What is it?
A is for Alpine. F is for Fault. 8 is the magnitude of the anticipated rupture of the Alpine Fault.
For the survivors, there will be life, but not as we know it.
While Dunedin will be buffered by distance, it will still experience an earthquake in the order of 4 to 5 magnitude.
Buildings will be damaged and destroyed.
People will be killed and injured.
Infrastructure will be broken.
There will be no power.
There will be no telecommunications.
There will be no water supply nor wastewater disposal.
Supply lines will be cut.
This is the scenario painted by Andy Mackenzie Everitt of Emergency Management Otago.
The Alpine Fault rupture is the most catastrophic natural hazard event likely to affect our city and one for which we are least prepared.
Fault ruptures occur approximately every 300 years. The last was in 1717. It is now overdue. There is a 75% probability of an event within the next 50 years.
When it happens, you will be on your own. Personal preparedness is critical.
Andy described the emergency management structure nationally, regionally and locally.
He identified the natural hazards to which Dunedin is most exposed: flood, landslip, extreme weather, wildfire, infrastructure failures, pandemics and earthquakes.
Emergency management, emergency services, lifeline utilities and other local and national agencies can generally manage these things. The impact of the expected Alpine Fault rupture will be beyond their capacity.
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