Prof Robert Patman (hereafter RP)

RP gave us a very detailed address on New Zealand and AUKUS; and NZ/China relations within this context. Here are just some of the highlights …
NZ is currently ‘considering’ joining AUKUS Pillar 2 (P2).
This was started under the last government and continues under the present government.
Both governments claim to be considering the national interest when making decisions.
Remember that AUKUS was created to counter-balance China’s military, economic and diplomatic might, particularly in the Pacific.
P1 is nuclear and we cannot be involved. It breaks the “no nuc’s’ Policy of Rarotonga.
(Note – RP said that the Australian military is not happy with P1 – the main feature, the submarines, are not due for another 10 to 20 years.)
P2 includes A.I., non-nuclear military hardware like missiles, communications etc.
Foreign Minister Peters has clearly stated that there is no decision yet. However, the current government appears more interested in joining that previous government.
Government Briefing Papers say that P2 represents a significant opportunity to ‘interface with USA, UK and Australian allies.’
NZ government has indicated that it can ‘manage’ any consequences of joining P2.
RP asked “How much economic leeway do we have?” RP answered “No advantage obvious at present. P2 is economically and diplomatically bad for NZ.”
RP asked us to remember that we are now a significant player in the space industry with Rocket Lab’s activities; this an important factor.
F.M. Peters recently said that our defence situation is ‘dire.’ We need to raise our Defence budget significantly.
China has recently issued NZ with a warning against joining; they are very concerned with this ‘military alliance’ and concerned that this is the sole purpose of AUKUS, especially P1.
China says our joining would be considered as indicating NZ is anti-China.
China is a major NZ trading partner;
China is a major world economy
China is big! And it is often indifferent to the opinions of others.
China says they are not a threat – they are an opportunity. This despite totally different political systems.
Professor Patman answered some very pertinent questions from the members. Some of his comments …
The possibility of another Trump Presidency would mean AUKUS is probably a dead issue.
AUKUS is poor strategy for NZ.
Western ‘superiority’ is being buried in the ruins of Gaza.
Palestine must be recognised as an independent state. Hamas represents only a very small part of Palestine, and most Palestinians would reject it, given the opportunity.
NZ’s alternative to AUKUS is increasing Defence expenditure and bolstering links with Australia. He considers this our best alternative.
Australia + NZ is not a deterrent!
Current direct threats to NZ include China’s possible internal disfunction, the Ukraine war, and the USA’s unconditional support of Israel.

 

 

The Final was held last Tuesday night at the Dunedin Fernhill Club. 5 students competed – including our club’s finalist Rowan O’Shea from OBHS, and students from OGHS, St Hilda’s, Columba College and Trinity.
They were judged by a panel of 4 members from Toastmasters and a large very appreciative audience including 3 teachers, parents and club members. Rhys Jenkins, who holds the District 9999 Youth Portfolio was also present.
The students presented a 5–6-minute speech based around the Rotary 4-way Test. They were able to select their own topic but the principles of the 4-way test needed to be woven through their speeches.
The speeches were varied in topic, but each student presented a convincing, passionate and thoughtful argument for their chosen cause.
This year the competition was restricted to the Greater Dunedin Area Schools, but next year we are hoping to widen the scope of the competition and invite many more clubs in District 9999 to become involved in the project.